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Mounting apprehensions are present regarding the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational rhetoric has escalated in the last month.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, requests for entry to the sea coast through Eritrean territory has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in the previous year that his nation's access to the sea was an vital issue, comments that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the both governments have frequently been strained. Following a long-standing fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict broke out in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Current Comments from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and army chief the army commander have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and implied the intention to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "rectified in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Answer to the Threats

In the face of persistent threats from Ethiopia, Asmara's position has been restricted to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of reclaiming former lands.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that efforts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of significant troop deployments in the boundary zones between the two countries.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed completion events of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The director of staff section of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a message to our adversaries".

Previous Roots of the Tension

For decades from 1890, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

After the end of Italian rule, it was then managed by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle occurred, concluding with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then approved by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Although this finished in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations stayed at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The two signed a declaration that the war was concluded – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then allies in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

However relations have since broken down once more.