Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
