Daily Homicides in Mexico Decline 37% In President Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The average number of daily killings per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by fresh administrative data. However, security specialists have advised that murder numbers may not indicate better national security.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Numbers

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in September of last year. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded during these months is remarkably significant,” the President remarked, adding that the previous month the smallest number of homicides were registered for any November in the past decade.

Recent Background and Official Plan

Fierce cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military efforts to take on the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder rate escalate in recent years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, declining to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety analysts warned that using murder numbers to assess the situation of improved security was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in different crimes such as people going missing.

“This would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. Yet, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for gauging the reality of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it could hide periods when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he stated.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact crimes, according to government figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” said Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

But in spite of these measures, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters protested in the capital and across the country to show their outrage at graft and cartel violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.